Based on consumer interest in AD features and commercial solutions available on the market today, ADAS and AD could generate between $300 billion and $400 billion in the passenger car market by 2035, according to McKinsey analysis 3 McKinsey Center for Future Mobility analysis. Vehicles with lidar-based Level 2+ (L2+) capabilities contain approximately $1,500 to $2,000 in component costs, and even more for cars with Level 3 (元) and L4 options. Growing demand for AD systems could create billions of dollars in revenue. Consumers want access to AD features and are willing to pay for them, according to a 2021 McKinsey consumer survey. Vehicles will ultimately achieve Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Level 4 (L4), or driverless control under certain conditions. Today, most cars only include basic ADAS features, but major advancements in AD capabilities are on the horizon. 2 Tom Seymour, “Crash repair market to reduce by 17% by 2030 due to advanced driver systems, says ICDP,” Automotive Management Online, April 7, 2018.Īlong with these consumer benefits, AD may also generate additional value for the auto industry. Safety might also increase, with one study showing that the growing adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in Europe could reduce the number of accidents by about 15 percent by 2030. AD might also improve mobility for elderly drivers, providing them with mobility options that go beyond public transportation or car-sharing services. Since workers can perform their jobs from an autonomous car, they could more easily move farther away from the office, which, in turn, could attract more people to rural areas and suburbs. For employees with long commutes, driving an AV might increase worker productivity and even shorten the workday. Hours on the road previously spent driving could be used to video call a friend, watch a funny movie, or even work. AD systems may make driving safer, more convenient, and more enjoyable. ![]() (Other McKinsey publications explore the potential of shared AVs such as robo-taxis and robo-shuttles, as well as autonomous trucks and autonomous last-mile delivery.) Autonomous driving could produce substantial value for drivers, the auto industry, and societyĪD could revolutionize the way consumers experience mobility. It also outlines critical success factors that every auto OEM, supplier, and tech provider should know in order to win in the AD passenger car market. ![]() This report, which focuses on the private-passenger-car segment of the AD market, examines the potential for autonomous technologies to disrupt the passenger car market. To realize the consumer and commercial benefits of autonomous driving, however, auto OEMs and suppliers may need to develop new sales and business strategies, acquire new technological capabilities, and address concerns about safety. 1 McKinsey Center for Future Mobility analysis. This report is a collaborative effort by Johannes Deichmann, Eike Ebel, Kersten Heineke, Ruth Heuss, Martin Kellner, and Fabian Steiner, representing views from the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.īecause of this, AD could create massive value for the auto industry, generating hundreds of billions of dollars before the end of this decade, McKinsey research shows.
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